Sunday, March 6, 2011

Pre-Release FX Market Analysis March Week 2

Hello everybody,

Here a little thought of this week trading strategy. I will put it here as simple as it can be and will update the rest on my Weekly FX Market Analysis which will be release on Wednesday 9th March 2011. 

Last week was surprisingly the opposite from what I expected. US dollar fails to gain its value against other major currency especially toward GBP & AUD while NFP is in line with strong forecast. Luckily, technical probabilities still cover up everything. I still prepare for a medium term retracement for both currencies but I’ll value this on this week trading session depending on my strategy setup. 

From last week event, will this scenario brings more selling on USD. Is this what we are going to do this week? Will price slip while major sentiments soar? Lets us discuss the strategy toward next week trade. 

Next in line is either BOE will raise its interest rate this week not? Sentiment trading which is the one that brings the most profit into my portfolio will be put into consideration in my first 2 days of this week trade. We are well aware of ECB & BOE decision to raise interest rate for each of their country. So the sentiments are on the way, but I will put my position once technical probability is there.         
Newly added into the line is NZD which forecasted to reduce its interest rate from 3.00% to 2.75%. 

The only thing that we need to watch out for next week technical probability is which pair will make the first move of breaking out from either support or resistant? With it, we will follow with other pair that in correlation with that pair. First 3 in line are EUR/USD, GBP/USD & AUD/USD.
(More details on technical probabilities will be discuss in my Weekly FX Market Analysis)

I suggest we wait for Thursday data (NZD & GBP interest rate announcement) whereby NZD forecasted to lower its country interest rate and to see whether GBP will hold onto the sentiment even though rumours suggest that it’s more likely to happen in April. 

My trade for next week will be simple. Until I see a sharp down at least 100 - 150 pips on GBP/USD, EUR/USD or AUD/USD, I would not put any more buy on any of this pair. There is a risk to avoid and the risk that we’re looking at here is the type of risk that simple enough to understand. As usual, while waiting for data & sentiment to drive the market, technical probability are always been brought up into the shape of the trend. This create simple pattern which later we see clearly into a buy or a sell opportunity.    

 …and yes, in the mean time, I would risk 1 lot for all those pair to see the simple trade progress.

Just remember to add additional plan into your trade because a single plan won’t be enough to win the market that we’re in now. Manage your risk and trade with an open mind. 

Once again, my Weekly FX Market Analysis will be release on Wednesday 9th March 2011. For more information on my Weekly FX Market Analysis, please sent your interest to

Happy Trading.

Warmest Regards, 

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