Monday, December 19, 2011

Youth Inc. Malaysia - YIB Open Futsal Challenge

Hi all,

Youth Inc. Malaysia is my new project to be part of youth scene in Malaysia. As for now, we already have 5 divisions, 4 mini project, 2 collaborated entities & 200 members for a start.


Our latest event is an open futsal tournament sponsored by Figos Malaysia & Tropicana Twister called the YIB Open Futsal Challenge. Here the video for this event.

Enjoy & help me to share this video.

YIB Open Futsal Challenge

Thank you.

Ahmad Shahmi

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

My new part time project.

Hi everybody,

This last few weeks I have been shooting & editing a videoclip called "The Making of BrandMe Ambassador" for BrandMe Malaysia. For more info about BrandMe you can use this link here:

1) Youth In Business | BrandMe Website
2) BrandMe Malaysia

Side note: They need 300 more BrandMe! Ambassador for their upcoming project. For those who wish to join, please send 2 of your best pictures with name & contact number to

Thank Q.

ashahmi |

Friday, August 19, 2011

The 5 Simple Questions

Hi all,

There is something that I want to share with all of you. Its how to be ready & plan for your future. 5 steps that can make your daily life much more reasonable.

1. Know your vision - The big picture of what you want to achieve.
2. Know your mission - Analyse the things that you need to achieve your vision.
3. Know what you're going to do - Your terms in achieving your target.    
4. Know why you're going to do it - The value behind everything that you do.
5. Know how you're going to do it - Your strategy toward your plans.

If you can answer all of this simple questions, that mean you're on the right path of your dreams.

If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much. ~Jim Rohn~

As my experience tought me, the only thing that will drive you toward your goals is your desire and passion. Do you have these?

aShahmi |

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Probability Trading - Part 1

Hi all,

Below are basic Technical Strategy that I use on my daily trading.

Group A: GU, GJ, EU & EJ
Group B: UCAD or UJPY or UCHF
Group C: EG
Group D: AU & XAU/USD

Group A: Most of the time I study this Group using Fibonacci and S&R. Each one of them seems to have friendly momentum correlation on each other. e.g: All pair stop at certain hidden point. Let says, GU(61.8%) GJ (76.4%) EU(50%) EJ(50%). This show that all of the Group A pair are standing at a support which all of the pair would at the same time having less momentum. This mean that my Support or Resistant have the highest chance of it to bounce. So here I would trade on one of the pair which give me a better strengh on that particular day by using Bounce Strategy on Fibonacci Extension or Fibonacci Retracement.

Group B: Base on my experiences, USD/CAD is the best counter pair against Group A pairs. I would draw a Fibonacci on this pair but most of the time, I just draw a simple Support & Resistant to show the Possible Range or the Major S&R. The reason of drawing S&R on this pair is because I want to see the momentum on the breakout or the bounce of USD. e.g. If Group A is Bullish - Group B is more likely to be bearish.

Group C: I use EUR/GBP to see strenght on EUR or GBP at certain time(indicator to Group A pairs). Most of the time I wish that this pair don't move at all. It's simply because when this pair is on ranging, Group A pairs will move together in one direction with the same momentum. I only draw a Possible Range/S&R on this pair.

Group D: This group I will put as an extra pairs in my trading - Only to trade with the highest probability available. So here it goes. In my trading, I would put AUD/USD in Group A because it happened to be following them in term of 'Hidden S&R'(Fibonacci). Currently, AUD/USD is way too strong & trendy compare to other pairs in Group A, correlation between AUD/USD and Group A pair clash sometimes (see couple of month back). As of now, it seems like the correlation has moving back side by side again. As I mention earlier, only to trade this pair when it giving you the highest probabily.

I'm very new in trading the XAU/USD(Gold). Been watching as indicator to other pairs but never put any single trade until last month(After been persuaded by my friend). As we all know, Gold can be a very good indicator to see USD momentum. Gold up USD down and vice versa. In my view, this pair is very sensitive to S&R and Its very volatile. Most of the time I would trade on retracement/bounce by using scalping strategy. So I would suggest you guys to really understand the basic movement of this pair before trading it.       

Timeframe I use on each group:
Group A: Daily - H4 - H1 - M5
Group B: H4 - H1 - M5
Group C: H1 - M5
Extra: Daily - H4 - H1 - M5

That's all for today. Happy trading to all... ^_^ 

Thank you 


Friday, April 8, 2011

AAC WINGS - Skype Group

Hi all, 

We are proud to announce that AAC is now opening a new skype group called AAC WINGS. Please add me at Skype ID: ahmadshahmi and later I'll add you into AAC WINGS Skype group. 

This group is free to all AAC clients.

Thank you. 

Warmest Regards, 

Blogs: |

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Pre-Release FX Market Analysis March Week 2

Hello everybody,

Here a little thought of this week trading strategy. I will put it here as simple as it can be and will update the rest on my Weekly FX Market Analysis which will be release on Wednesday 9th March 2011. 

Last week was surprisingly the opposite from what I expected. US dollar fails to gain its value against other major currency especially toward GBP & AUD while NFP is in line with strong forecast. Luckily, technical probabilities still cover up everything. I still prepare for a medium term retracement for both currencies but I’ll value this on this week trading session depending on my strategy setup. 

From last week event, will this scenario brings more selling on USD. Is this what we are going to do this week? Will price slip while major sentiments soar? Lets us discuss the strategy toward next week trade. 

Next in line is either BOE will raise its interest rate this week not? Sentiment trading which is the one that brings the most profit into my portfolio will be put into consideration in my first 2 days of this week trade. We are well aware of ECB & BOE decision to raise interest rate for each of their country. So the sentiments are on the way, but I will put my position once technical probability is there.         
Newly added into the line is NZD which forecasted to reduce its interest rate from 3.00% to 2.75%. 

The only thing that we need to watch out for next week technical probability is which pair will make the first move of breaking out from either support or resistant? With it, we will follow with other pair that in correlation with that pair. First 3 in line are EUR/USD, GBP/USD & AUD/USD.
(More details on technical probabilities will be discuss in my Weekly FX Market Analysis)

I suggest we wait for Thursday data (NZD & GBP interest rate announcement) whereby NZD forecasted to lower its country interest rate and to see whether GBP will hold onto the sentiment even though rumours suggest that it’s more likely to happen in April. 

My trade for next week will be simple. Until I see a sharp down at least 100 - 150 pips on GBP/USD, EUR/USD or AUD/USD, I would not put any more buy on any of this pair. There is a risk to avoid and the risk that we’re looking at here is the type of risk that simple enough to understand. As usual, while waiting for data & sentiment to drive the market, technical probability are always been brought up into the shape of the trend. This create simple pattern which later we see clearly into a buy or a sell opportunity.    

 …and yes, in the mean time, I would risk 1 lot for all those pair to see the simple trade progress.

Just remember to add additional plan into your trade because a single plan won’t be enough to win the market that we’re in now. Manage your risk and trade with an open mind. 

Once again, my Weekly FX Market Analysis will be release on Wednesday 9th March 2011. For more information on my Weekly FX Market Analysis, please sent your interest to

Happy Trading.

Warmest Regards, 

Blogs: |
Disclaimer applies.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Pre-Release FX Market Analysis February Week 4

This week we will be looking forward to a pound for a much more dollars. Let discuss the play.

A fine example has been shown last week. EUR were bullish on Friday last week by the hawkish statement from ECB member Bini-Smaghi and this sentiment will be brought up to this week trade. Below are the quoted statements. 

“Today’s comments from ECB member Bini-Smaghi further confirm that some members of the central bank are thinking along the same line as investors. Bini-Smaghi said point blank that the “ECB may raise rates as press pressures mount” He said the central bank has repeatedly communicated its alertness and can take pre-emptive action if needed.”

We are well learned that the correlation between currency pair cannot be put aside. A simple example which trader A sell USD Buy GBP and once GBP are too high, Trader A Sell GBP and looking for low yield currencies. Fund being transfer all the time depend on which will benefit traders the most. So in this case, USD is being in least favour to the traders because of its unstable statement and flips flopping momentum.  The currencies that will be most benefit from this is GBP & EUR with their strong fundamental support.

So here we look at the strong and trendy currency which at this moment were EUR, GBP & AUD. This both 3 have quite stable correlation statistically and part of the element that we want to see is that they are now come up with bullish technical probability. Technically these 3 major currencies have a very high probability on pawning USD next week. 

The best trade for this week would be on Wednesday where the MPC Meeting Minute will be held. Forecasted where 3 of the members voting for a GBP interest rate hike. It’s best advice to trade on sentiment on this very day.   

*** REMEMBER... Every strong thrust neither bullish nor bearish always had been powered by a good retracement. Market move in wave, just make sure next week we ride the bull from the ground.  Buy Low & Sell High. ***
Let’s put a simple summary on last week commentary and find conclusion toward next week trade. Fill this up for this week trade on GBP/USD; Rumour, Probability, Data, Pattern & put a Conclusion toward the trade on either to go short or long. Well, this will be an easy homework for you all.

By the way, for those who already has an account (FXCM) with ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL will get our full FX Market Analysis on those 4 elements plus complete drawing on chart technical probability.

I have written about the market elements. Click here to read.

P/S: The trade that I’ve been waiting for is on the month of March, 1st week. The title will be ‘Will this be the last Bullish for GBP?’ I’ll quote Jesse Livermore book on how he plays the games.   

The currency pairs that I will look closely on this week are GBP/USD, GBP/JPY & AUD/USD. These pair have high technical probability & strong fundamental support but carrying less risk. But if there is any opportunity on other pairs, surely I will update the post.

Thank you. 

Kind Regards,
Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin

Blogs: |

Disclaimer Applies

Monday, February 7, 2011

The 4 Element of Market Analysis

Hello everybody,

Below is my article for this week. Feel free to read.

There are 4 elements in Market Analysis;

1) Rumours
2) Probability
3) Data
4) Pattern

Each of the element play a significant role in contributing into the movement of the market price.  To understand each element, we need a simple method called balance trading which interpret in a better word a hybrid approach.

Let discuss each element.

Rumours are what you read on the market commentary. It’s basically an unverified account or explanation of events circulating from person to person and pertaining to an price, event, or issue in public concern. Rumour can be taken from 2 type sources which are Probability and Data. Most of the time, rumours create sentiment in the market.  

Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. Which when we interpret into FX will be the knowledge of technical analysis. From this part of studies, we need to find the probability of certain price level which at the historic pattern movement create a simple probability of bullish or bearish movement.

Let’s take an example of Fibonacci Retracement;

There is a swing form from point A to point B. The retracement preferred bounce level is around 61.8%. So here I put a probability of the price will hit 61.8% Fibonacci level and after that bounce back to the specific level which are also a probabilities.

Probability can be put as sums of all hidden connections between price and technical pattern. Technical Analysis in specific is a Probability Analysis.  

The term data means groups of information that represent the qualitative or quantitative attributes of a variable or set of variables.

In FX we’re using data from an Economic Calendar which soon be interpreting in our daily trading. Some data can bring high impact to the currency market and some are low.

Data can also bring sentiment to the market by their connection to the rumours of speculation on the data. This can make an obsessive amount of misleading toward the real market price.

In trading, pattern can be defined as sum of trading experiences. Part of our everyday trading, we’re collecting price pattern which include momentum, price action, price probabilities, data action and etc.

This pattern somehow generates a better understanding toward our trade. Most of cases show that senior traders made more accurate position than a new traders. Part of the building a pattern is by acquiring knowledge from senior traders by attending a courses and seminars. There is no complete knowledge as some suggest as there is no fact in the market itself. The will to understand the theory depend on each person and their capabilities. Some may proceed with only probability and some act more on data feeds. Each trader has their own way of studies and proceeds with their pattern reading.      

The general meaning of pattern is your trading skills.

Conclusion to these 4 elements is that we need to study the market before we jump into trading. Regardless of what one understands, the market always reacts by these elements. To be in any single element will contribute frustration and confusion toward our trade.

The best part about mastering this 4 element, you can already reason the movement of the chart. Moreover, you might consider making your own Market Analysis and try to compare it to other a senior market analysis. 

By all mean, there are no ends toward knowledge. Every day is a new day and everyday people change. Changes are what impact the market most of the times.     

That is rumour, probability, data & pattern. Hope you guys enjoy it. ^_^

Good luck & Happy Trading!  

Warmest Regards,

Blogs: |

Friday, February 4, 2011

Pre-Release - Weekly FX Market Analysis

Hi all, 

Below are our Key Support & Key Resistant for next week.

Key Support: 1.59000 Minor Support: 1.6050
Key Resistant: 1.63000

If the price is around 25pips below or above this key S&R, please proceed with a Bounce Strategy.

The sentiment for GBP/USD for next week will be bullish base on high probability of GBP interest rate hike. Probability been brought up earlier on 26 January 2011 in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting which 2 out of 9 members of this commitee cast a vote to increase interest rate. 

Data: Interest rate decision for GBP/USD will be on 10th February 2011.    

Technical Probability: As for now, we can see that the market approaching the 0% of Fibonacci Extension on 4 hr graph. There are also a minor support for GBP/USD which hold at 1.6050 base on October, November and January S&R. Any approach of buying at this point must be supported with a stop order. 

Pattern: Please be aware of incoming news and any technical setup in other pairs due to probability of early price corrections.

Happy Trading.

Warmest Regards, 

For more information on our Weekly FX Market Analysis, please sent your interest to

Disclaimer applies.

Monday, January 31, 2011


Hi all,   

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | | are officially launch today on 1st of February 2011

Click this link to visit ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | AsiaFXCapital Blog and this to main website

Our main services;

1. FX Professional Course
2. Weekly FX Market Analysis
3. FXCM Live Account

are now open for registration.

For any enquiries, please email to our admin at

Thank you.

Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin
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