Sunday, January 23, 2011
FX Market Analysis
This is what I quoted from Kathy Lien @ FX360.com (Director of Currency Research at GFT)
"The resilience of the British pound is remarkable considering that the currency resumed its rally against the U.S. dollar despite a weaker retail sales report. Consumer spending fell 0.8 percent last month, which was four times worse than the market’s expectations."
Below are mine...
GBP/USD: 7 out of 10 speculator suggested the pair will go bullish all the way to 1.63 for next week. But the question is, what the remaining 3 mumbling about? 1 of the speculator suggest a bullish movement for the pair (Medium Term) but before that a simple reversal will occur until 1.5700 price hit (Short Term). Some which out of this 10 speculator even suggest 1.5300 is the point that it will hold the pair. So lets discuss the probability.
The 7 speculator you can find when you google forex market analysis. So here a thought for those 3 speculators.
- Technical rebound on 1.6050 R2 (based on Nov 2010 high price)
- Technical Bullish Fibonacci Pattern (Bullish mean it will go bearish first!) more likely to be confirm in 3 days (Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday)
- Fundamental Rebound on FOMC Meeting based on last week Unemployment Claims & House Data.
- Very weak Retail Sales Data on GBP.
- Commodity (Gold & Oil) short term fall.
On my last Weekly FX Market Analysis, I have provide you (If you one of them) with the Bearish Fibonacci Pattern. A success for last week and that pattern is still in range. ^_^
Personal conclutions: So here a thought... Lets play safe for next week. We're going to be the audience. The balance, fair & down to earth trader. If the price break my last week pattern price, it mean that the 7 speculators are correct with their analysis and the pair will be bullish. If not the minor, who are "not with the flow", "speculate as they like" speculator win the next week game which we will see the price go to 1.57 or 1.53.
Fair & Square. I'll update you by email when I see any potential winner and we will follow them. As usual, trade for next week will be update by email.
"Patience is the key to all luck".
Good luck and happy trading!
Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin
ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com
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Disclaimer: Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.