Pre-Release FX Market Analysis February Week 4

This week we will be looking forward to a pound for a much more dollars. Let discuss the play.

A fine example has been shown last week. EUR were bullish on Friday last week by the hawkish statement from ECB member Bini-Smaghi and this sentiment will be brought up to this week trade. Below are the quoted statements. 

“Today’s comments from ECB member Bini-Smaghi further confirm that some members of the central bank are thinking along the same line as investors. Bini-Smaghi said point blank that the “ECB may raise rates as press pressures mount” He said the central bank has repeatedly communicated its alertness and can take pre-emptive action if needed.”

We are well learned that the correlation between currency pair cannot be put aside. A simple example which trader A sell USD Buy GBP and once GBP are too high, Trader A Sell GBP and looking for low yield currencies. Fund being transfer all the time depend on which will benefit traders the most. So in this case, USD is being in least favour to the traders because of its unstable statement and flips flopping momentum.  The currencies that will be most benefit from this is GBP & EUR with their strong fundamental support.

So here we look at the strong and trendy currency which at this moment were EUR, GBP & AUD. This both 3 have quite stable correlation statistically and part of the element that we want to see is that they are now come up with bullish technical probability. Technically these 3 major currencies have a very high probability on pawning USD next week. 

The best trade for this week would be on Wednesday where the MPC Meeting Minute will be held. Forecasted where 3 of the members voting for a GBP interest rate hike. It’s best advice to trade on sentiment on this very day.   

*** REMEMBER... Every strong thrust neither bullish nor bearish always had been powered by a good retracement. Market move in wave, just make sure next week we ride the bull from the ground.  Buy Low & Sell High. ***

 

Let’s put a simple summary on last week commentary and find conclusion toward next week trade. Fill this up for this week trade on GBP/USD; Rumour, Probability, Data, Pattern & put a Conclusion toward the trade on either to go short or long. Well, this will be an easy homework for you all.

By the way, for those who already has an account (FXCM) with ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL will get our full FX Market Analysis on those 4 elements plus complete drawing on chart technical probability.

I have written about the market elements. Click here to read.

P/S: The trade that I’ve been waiting for is on the month of March, 1^st week. The title will be ‘Will this be the last Bullish for GBP?’ I’ll quote Jesse Livermore book on how he plays the games.   

The currency pairs that I will look closely on this week are GBP/USD, GBP/JPY & AUD/USD. These pair have high technical probability & strong fundamental support but carrying less risk. But if there is any opportunity on other pairs, surely I will update the post.

Thank you. 

Kind Regards,

Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Blogs: Ahmadshahmi.blogspot.com | AsiaFXCapital.blogsspot.com

Email: admin@asiafxcapital.com 

Disclaimer Applies

The 4 Element of Market Analysis

Hello everybody,

Below is my article for this week. Feel free to read.

There are 4 elements in Market Analysis;

1) Rumours
2) Probability
3) Data
4) Pattern

Each of the element play a significant role in contributing into the movement of the market price.  To understand each element, we need a simple method called balance trading which interpret in a better word a hybrid approach.

Let discuss each element.

Rumour;

Rumours are what you read on the market commentary. It’s basically an unverified account or explanation of events circulating from person to person and pertaining to an price, event, or issue in public concern. Rumour can be taken from 2 type sources which are Probability and Data. Most of the time, rumours create sentiment in the market.  

Probability;

Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. Which when we interpret into FX will be the knowledge of technical analysis. From this part of studies, we need to find the probability of certain price level which at the historic pattern movement create a simple probability of bullish or bearish movement.

Let’s take an example of Fibonacci Retracement;

There is a swing form from point A to point B. The retracement preferred bounce level is around 61.8%. So here I put a probability of the price will hit 61.8% Fibonacci level and after that bounce back to the specific level which are also a probabilities.

Probability can be put as sums of all hidden connections between price and technical pattern. Technical Analysis in specific is a Probability Analysis.  

Data;

The term data means groups of information that represent the qualitative or quantitative attributes of a variable or set of variables.

In FX we’re using data from an Economic Calendar which soon be interpreting in our daily trading. Some data can bring high impact to the currency market and some are low.

Data can also bring sentiment to the market by their connection to the rumours of speculation on the data. This can make an obsessive amount of misleading toward the real market price.

Pattern;

In trading, pattern can be defined as sum of trading experiences. Part of our everyday trading, we’re collecting price pattern which include momentum, price action, price probabilities, data action and etc.

This pattern somehow generates a better understanding toward our trade. Most of cases show that senior traders made more accurate position than a new traders. Part of the building a pattern is by acquiring knowledge from senior traders by attending a courses and seminars. There is no complete knowledge as some suggest as there is no fact in the market itself. The will to understand the theory depend on each person and their capabilities. Some may proceed with only probability and some act more on data feeds. Each trader has their own way of studies and proceeds with their pattern reading.      

The general meaning of pattern is your trading skills.

Conclusion

Conclusion to these 4 elements is that we need to study the market before we jump into trading. Regardless of what one understands, the market always reacts by these elements. To be in any single element will contribute frustration and confusion toward our trade.

The best part about mastering this 4 element, you can already reason the movement of the chart. Moreover, you might consider making your own Market Analysis and try to compare it to other a senior market analysis. 

By all mean, there are no ends toward knowledge. Every day is a new day and everyday people change. Changes are what impact the market most of the times.     

That is rumour, probability, data & pattern. Hope you guys enjoy it. ^_^

Good luck & Happy Trading!  

Warmest Regards,

AHMAD SHAHMI AHMAD NORDIN

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Blogs: AsiaFXCapital.blogspot.com | Ahmadshahmi.blogspot.com

Pre-Release - Weekly FX Market Analysis

Hi all, 

Below are our Key Support & Key Resistant for next week.

GBP/USD:

Key Support: 1.59000 Minor Support: 1.6050

Key Resistant: 1.63000

If the price is around 25pips below or above this key S&R, please proceed with a Bounce Strategy.

The sentiment for GBP/USD for next week will be bullish base on high probability of GBP interest rate hike. Probability been brought up earlier on 26 January 2011 in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting which 2 out of 9 members of this commitee cast a vote to increase interest rate. 

Data: Interest rate decision for GBP/USD will be on 10th February 2011.    

Technical Probability: As for now, we can see that the market approaching the 0% of Fibonacci Extension on 4 hr graph. There are also a minor support for GBP/USD which hold at 1.6050 base on October, November and January S&R. Any approach of buying at this point must be supported with a stop order. 

Pattern: Please be aware of incoming news and any technical setup in other pairs due to probability of early price corrections.

Happy Trading.

Warmest Regards, 

AHMAD SHAHMI AHMAD NORDIN

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.ASIAFXCAPITAL.com

For more information on our Weekly FX Market Analysis, please sent your interest to admin@asiafxcapital.com

Disclaimer applies.

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | AsiaFXCapital

Hi all,   

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com | AsiaFXCapital.blogspot.com are officially launch today on 1st of February 2011. 

Click this link to visit ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | AsiaFXCapital Blog and this to main website www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Our main services;

1. FX Professional Course
2. Weekly FX Market Analysis
3. FXCM Live Account

are now open for registration.

For any enquiries, please email to our admin at admin@asiafxcapital.com

Thank you.

Regards,
Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin
ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Weekly FX Market Analysis - February 2011 Week 1

Hi all,

This will be the Pre - FX Market Analysis for this week.

As we all know, this week will be a very challenging week. It's the first week of the month which is a favourite week for Fundamental Traders. It's THE NFP WEEK!!


On the weekend, there are so many post about how this month NFP Data will gradually change the trend of the Major Pairs. But contrary on the first day of trading, the speculations tumble as USD lost against all the Major Currencies especially the GBP. The currency is now a creating a Risk Aversion sentiment (the kind of risk to be avoid due to the uncertainties). What is wrong? and what is the reason behind all the sentiment toward the bearish movement of USD?

This is what I quoted from my favourite market commenter. Kathy Lien (Director of Currency Research GFT)

1) The price action in the financial markets today suggests that investors are in a better mood but this improved sentiment masks the escalating tensions in Egypt. The market may be relieved to find the Suez Canal open for operation and Egyptian President Murabak still in power but the protests have continued for a seventh Day and demonstrators are still calling for Murabak to step down. A "March of Millions" is scheduled for Tuesday and continued violence could lead to another round of risk aversion like the one that we saw on Friday.

...and here the extra boost for the sentiment for this week.

2) "This week is about job growth and it is only thing that could change the sentiment of the central bank. Strong job growth would ease concerns about the pace of the U.S. recovery while sluggish job growth could exacerbate them."

Remember the ADP Non Farm Employment Change? It's a hint toward the NFP Data Number but for two month in a row it has been out of the theory. Still we will be looking for a hint for NFP and as for now it's the only one.

Too many uncertainties on the volatility of USD? Well, there is a way... Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen. The Full House Pair. It can triple all you have or wipe out everything in a day. BUT this pair have showed us a less average market movement for the last 2 weeks. This is due to mix correlation between GBP / USD / JPY movement. So this pair now seems to be mix up with all the sentiment and make a simple trading speculation for all of us. Furthermore, this pair react more toward GBP Economic Data Announcement. This 2 days, we will be focus more on Technical Setup as the market only react on false sentiment especially on pound. By the way, there are 2 news coming out of Great Britain on the evening. So we will be extra careful on this data announcement.

Below is what I quoted from my favourite DailyFX.com commenter. John Kicklighter (Currency Strategist at DailyFX.com) 

"The other reason for my hesitance to take on a high-risk position was the existing exposure to GBPJPY. Largely a technical setup, I have been with this pair for nearly a week longer than I had expected. Looking for a reversal after its channel test, this was largely a technical setup; but the resolution was primarily fundamental."

You can check out my Weekly FX Market Analysis which as usual will be sent to you by email.

And still for this week FX Market Analysis, I will post a trade decision on GBP/USD (Fundamental & Technical).

I'll also post any update on above mentions Currency Pair.

For more information or to subscribe The Weekly FX Market Analysis please send an email to admin@asiafxcapital.com

Thank you.

Kind Regards,
AHMAD SHAHMI AHMAD NORDIN
ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com 

Disclaimer: Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

www.AsiaFXCapital.com

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com will make a soft launch on 1st February 2011.

On that day, we will launch our website and all trader can start open their LIVE & DEMO account with us. All other service like FX Professional Course will be open to register. Promotion on February will be update and Weekly FX Market Analysis will be distribute to all members.

Any enquiry please sent to admin@asiafxcapital.com.


Thank you & Happy Trading!

Kind Regards,

Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin
ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

FX Market Analysis

FX Market Analysis - Pound vs Dollar

This is what I quoted from Kathy Lien @ FX360.com (Director of Currency Research at GFT)

"The resilience of the British pound is remarkable considering that the currency resumed its rally against the U.S. dollar despite a weaker retail sales report. Consumer spending fell 0.8 percent last month, which was four times worse than the market’s expectations."

Below are mine...

GBP/USD: 7 out of 10 speculator suggested the pair will go bullish all the way to 1.63 for next week. But the question is, what the remaining 3 mumbling about? 1 of the speculator suggest a bullish movement for the pair (Medium Term) but before that a simple reversal will occur until 1.5700 price hit (Short Term). Some which out of this 10 speculator even suggest 1.5300 is the point that it will hold the pair. So lets discuss the probability. 

The 7 speculator you can find when you google forex market analysis. So here a thought for those 3 speculators. 

- Technical rebound on 1.6050 R2 (based on Nov 2010 high price)
- Technical Bullish Fibonacci Pattern (Bullish mean it will go bearish first!) more likely to be confirm in 3 days (Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday)
- Fundamental Rebound on FOMC Meeting based on last week Unemployment Claims & House Data.
- Very weak Retail Sales Data on GBP.
- Commodity (Gold & Oil) short term fall.

On my last Weekly FX Market Analysis, I have provide you (If you one of them) with the Bearish Fibonacci Pattern. A success for last week and that pattern is still in range. ^_^

Personal conclutions: So here a thought... Lets play safe for next week. We're going to be the audience. The balance, fair & down to earth trader. If the price break my last week pattern price, it mean that the 7 speculators are correct with their analysis and the pair will be bullish. If not the minor, who are "not with the flow", "speculate as they like" speculator win the next week game which we will see the price go to 1.57 or 1.53. 

Fair & Square. I'll update you by email when I see any potential winner and we will follow them. As usual, trade for next week will be update by email. 

"Patience is the key to all luck".

Good luck and happy trading! 

Regards,
Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin
ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Solo Capital Group (Professional EA Provider) | www.SoloFXRobot.com 
Golden Horse Warrior (RT Manual Trading) | www.GoldenHorseWarrior.com

Disclaimer: Forex Trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses and is not suitable for all persons. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Weekly FX Market Analysis by Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin

Hi all,

I have started my own Weekly FX Market Analysis. The analysis mainly focus on Pound, Euro, Dollar & Yen which include Fundamental & Technical Analysis.    

This week analysis has brought in 80 point to each of my account and the Technical Analysis can be use as guidelines through out the week. 

For more information & to download* my Weekly FX Market Analysis, please go to www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Warmest Regards,

Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Email: CEO@AsiaFXCapital.com

*T&A apply.

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

Assalamualaikum, 

Bermula bulan Januari saya sudah tidak lagi bersama Nusajaya Wealth Management Pte Ltd / NusajayaFX sebagai Training Manager. Melalui beberapa persetujuan, saya telah memulakan langkah baru didalam bidang yang saya ceburi sejak 4 tahun lepas ini.

Untuk pengenalan, saya telah mewujudkan sebuah syarikat baru yang diberi nama ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL. Dibawah nama perniagaan www.AsiaFXCapital.com / AsiaFXCapital.

ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL akan menjadi Referring Broker kepada Forex Capital Market / FXCM. 

Harapan saya adalah supaya perniagaan ini akan berjalan dengan lancar dan berterusan. Peluang yang diberikan akan saya gunakan sebaiknya untuk menjayakan semua yang telah diusahakan.

Salam untuk semua,
Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin
ASIA ALLIANCE CAPITAL | www.AsiaFXCapital.com

NusajayaFX.blogspot.com

Hi all,

Below are the link to my company blog. I've been writing article over there. Feel free to read.

NusajayaFX.blogspot.com

Thank you.

Regards,
Ahmad Shahmi Ahmad Nordin
Training Manager
NusajayaFX Training Centre